What’s Up in the Polls?

Written by Elliot Schein

As November 3rd day quickly approaches, many people have been closely monitoring online polls to see if they can predict the outcome of the election. Not only is this election one of the most contentious yet, as current social issues and the pandemic have divided Americans immensely, but the 2020 election is especially significant, as the results may greatly impact the country for years to come.

Every 10 years, the census aims to count the entire U.S. population. This is also when electors and representatives are reapportioned among the states based on population. A state’s number of electors and House members can highly influence future elections and legislative decisions until the next census is taken in 2030, when the numbers are redistributed again.

Because the 2020 presidential election falls on the same year as the census, it will do far more than just choose the president for the next four years. The majority party will have an immeasurable advantage over the minority. Not only will they be in charge of redistricting, but they can use their political positions to help broadcast their ideologies in order to gain support during this crucial time.

Texas is a particularly important piece of this political puzzle. Texas currently holds the second highest number of electors at 38,  and that number is only predicted to increase. Along with this, Texas’s political stance has slowly been moving closer to the center, and whichever political party is the majority will have a lot of influence. Stratford AP Government teacher Mrs. Russo predicts that Texas will be seeing a lot more political ads than they’re used to following the election.

The website 270towin shows an interactive map of the Electoral College.

There is much uncertainty surrounding maps predicting electoral votes due to the outcome of the 2016 election. Almost every prediction favored Hillary Clinton and the results of the election were a surprise to many. A margin of error should be expected for any data involving samples, but this was still shocking.
Although there is no way to predict the outcome of the election with completely certainty, you can still make a difference by voting if you are over 18. Early voting is open until October 30th and election day is November 3rd. Check www.harrisvotes.com for the nearest polling locations and wait times. Get out and vote!

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